Rainfall Probability Analysis for Crops Scheduling in Kwaebibirem District, Eastern Region of Ghana

Abstract

Ghana is a country where most farmers practice traditional farming system in which crops are grown depending on the type of climate
per cropping season. This study aimed to conduct a rainfall probability analysis in Kwaebibirem District, Eastern Region of Ghana in
order to predict the probable rainfall occurrence in the next five (5) years and to develop a recommended cropping schedule in the area
based on the said prediction. An equation was derived for the rainfall probability occurrence for the next five (5) years using Seasonal
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Thirteen years worth of data (January 2006- December 2018) of the UG Gagasa
Meteorological Station were used as references for the prediction of the rainfall occurrences for 2020-2024.Results revealed that there
will be rainfall occurrences throughout every year from 2020-2024. The rainfall occurrences will be low from the first week of every
year, to the 14th week and will increase in volume from the 15th-26th weeks, which is the period for the major growth season. Based
on the predicted rainfall probability occurrence, maize was recommended to be planted twice a year over the five-year period. Tomato
may also be planted twice in 2021, 2022, and 2024 while chili pepper may be grown twice in 2022, 2023, and 2024. But rice may be
grown only once year from 2020- 2024.